The short answer
Published tribunal decisions are the best evidence there is of how a challenge will go. They are the worst possible evidence of what your property should rent for. There are too few of them, in too many places, and each one turns on the evidence the two parties happened to send.
We read every market-rent decision the First-tier Tribunal published between 1 March and 12 October 2026 — 846 of them. This is what they can and cannot tell you.
Too thin to price a rent from
The 846 decisions cover 514 postcode districts. 330 of those districts have exactly one decision. Only 13 have five or more. If you priced only from decisions in the same district with at least five cases, almost every property in England would have no number at all.
| Decisions | All 2026 decisions | Under the new rules (from 1 May 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Decisions published | 846 | 79 |
| Postcode districts covered | 514 | 72 |
| Districts with one decision | 330 | 66 |
| Districts with five or more | 13 | 0 |
| Busiest district | DA2 (Dartford), 9 | M7 (Salford), 3 |
Under the new rules the picture is starker still. In the first five months, no postcode district had more than three decisions. A ‘tribunal rent’ for your street does not exist.
Why the number in a decision is not a market price
It reflects the evidence the parties sent, not the market
Most cases are decided on the papers. Under the new rules, 76 of 79 had no hearing, and only one had an inspection. The tribunal values what it is shown. In LON/00BJ/MRA/2026/0014 neither side sent any comparables; the tribunal used its own knowledge, put similar flats at £2,500 to £3,200, and could only confirm the landlord’s £2,200 because of the ceiling. That £2,200 is not a market rent. It is the most the tribunal was allowed to give.
The ceiling distorts every confirmed figure
Since 1 May 2026 the tribunal cannot set a rent above the landlord’s notice (Housing Act 1988, s.14ZB). So a confirmed rent tells you only that the market was at least that much. In MAN/00BN/MRA/2026/0039 the tribunal valued a Manchester house at £1,500 and set £1,200, because £1,200 was in the notice.
Condition deductions are specific to one home
Tribunals value the home ‘modernised and in good order’, then deduct for what is wrong with it. £20 for damaged flooring (MAN/00BY/MRA/2026/0038). £150 for single glazing, worn floor coverings and being unfurnished (LON/00AF/MRA/2026/0055). In HAV/21UD/MRA/2026/0019 the rent was frozen at £860 until damp repairs were done. None of that tells you anything about the flat next door.
Old-rules cases look nothing like new ones
Notices served before 1 May 2026 are still being decided under the old rules, where the tribunal could go above the landlord and backdate. In LON/00AG/MNR/2026/0211 a proposed £293.55 a week became £917 a week. Those cases sit in the same list on gov.uk. Mixing them with new-rules cases gives nonsense.
What decisions are good for: judging the risk
Pooled across the country, decisions tell you how often a figure like yours survives, and why the ones that didn’t were cut. That is useful before you serve a notice.
| Under the new rules | Result |
|---|---|
| Set below the landlord’s proposal | 60% (46 of 77) |
| Proposal confirmed in full | 40% (31 of 77) |
| No increase at all | 18% (14 of 77), 4 of them below the current rent |
| Median cut where cut | 5.1%, about £95 a month |
| Hearing held | 3 of 79 |
| Hardship delay granted | About 3 of 30 requests |
The size of the increase matters more than anything else. Across the old-rules cases with all three rents recorded:
| Increase asked for | Cut when challenged | Median result vs the proposal |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 41% | 0.0% |
| 5–10% | 63% | −2.3% |
| 10–15% | 74% | −4.5% |
| 15–20% | 81% | −6.7% |
| 20–30% | 78% | −7.3% |
| 30–50% | 75% | −9.3% |
| 50% or more | 86% | −16.6% |
What tribunals actually trust
Reading the 79 new-rules decisions, a clear order of evidence emerges.
- Agreed new lettings in the same building or street. Nine agreed lettings in one build-to-rent block confirmed a landlord’s full figure (LON/00BB/MRA/2026/0009).
- The flat next door, the same size, let on the open market (CAM/00MC/MRA/2026/0008).
- Asking rents for similar homes within about a mile — ‘the tone of the market’, but not conclusive (HAV/24UG/MRA/2026/0021).
- Portal price guides: ‘not the best evidence’. One landlord relying on one lost the whole increase (BIR/00CS/MRA/2026/0013).
- Renewals with sitting tenants: discounted, because ‘the existing tenant factor needs to be stripped out’ (MAN/00BR/MRA/2026/0042).
- Lettings only from your own managed blocks, or redacted agreements that hide the date: marked down (HAV/29UN/MRA/2026/0012).
So where should the figure come from?
From your own agreed new lettings of similar homes nearby, dated, with the size measured internally and the condition noted — anchored to the ONS Price Index of Private Rents for the area. Then use the decisions to check the risk on that figure: how big is the ask, how does the home’s condition compare, and what would a tribunal see if the tenant applied tomorrow.
Try it on one property with the free rent increase tribunal risk checker, or read twenty case notes in the free Section 13 rent review playbook.
Source: Abide.Rent analysis of 846 First-tier Tribunal (Property Chamber) market-rent decisions published on gov.uk between 1 March and 12 October 2026, 79 of them under the rules in force from 1 May 2026.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Not legal advice.
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